UP Exit Polls Result 2024: BJP, which had a clean sweep of 5-0 in five seats of the division including Bareilly in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, is stuck in a close contest on many seats this time. At the same time, SP seems to be gaining advantage this time. If political analysts are to be believed, the score of 5-0 of the last election may shrink to 3-2 this time. Along with the anti-incumbency wave, BJP is also seen in trouble due to change of candidate on three seats. SP is looking at the support of Congress, trust of Muslims and possible split in Dalit votes as an advantage. Local issues also dominated on some seats. Here is a report assessing the profits and losses of various political parties on all seven seats…
Bareilly: BJP hopes to win with the help of Dalit voters
The main contest on Bareilly seat is between BJP and SP candidates. Both the rival parties seem confident about their victory. In case BSP candidate withdraws from the fray, the attitude of Dalit voters will decide victory or defeat here. Voting took place in Bareilly in the third phase. There was talk of resentment among Kurmi voters due to denial of ticket to Santosh Gangwar from BJP, but new candidate Chhatrapal Gangwar belonging to Kurmi community has almost eliminated this resentment. BJP has claimed victory by getting votes from all sections and considering Dalit voters as its own.
On the other hand, SP candidate Praveen Singh Aron claims that BSP’s traditional vote has come to SP after being hurt by BJP’s policies. BJP has also got general category votes to a large extent. His victory is certain. If political analysts are to be believed, BJP can once again wave the flag of victory here with the help of Dalit votes.
Although BSP’s Abid Ali has also contested the Aonla Lok Sabha seat with full vigor, the main contest is believed to be between BJP candidate Dharmendra Kashyap and SP’s Neeraj Maurya. Both the parties are claiming their respective victories. Election experts are saying that this time the margin of victory or defeat will be very small. The BJP candidate was promoted in the area as an opponent of a particular class. The opponents laid a trap based on the statement made by him in one of his videos.
It is being said that he has been successful to a great extent in his strategy. However, Dharmendra has won the last election with record votes. His supporters say that BJP will win. SP candidate Neeraj Maurya and his supporters are claiming to get votes from every caste and religion and are considering their victory certain. According to political analysts, the contest here will be interesting. While BJP is suffering due to the anger of upper caste voters, SP has also failed to gain lead due to having an outsider candidate.
According to the voters’ claims, there is a possibility of a close contest between SP and BJP on the Pilibhit parliamentary seat. From the city to the countryside, farmers, youth, elderly, farmers and women, all are eagerly waiting for June 4. There are about 18 lakh voters in Pilibhit district. If we talk about the urban area, then here a direct contest is being said to be between BJP candidate Jitin Prasad and SP’s Bhagwat Saran Gangwar. Whereas, in Bisalpur, the matter is triangular.
This time BSP has made a dent in SP’s Muslim votes. However, SP is also expected to get good votes. Here BJP is also seen to be at a loss due to change of candidate. However, BJP’s Jitin Prasada can get a decisive lead from Sadar, Barkheda, Puranpur assembly constituencies. Political analysts are expressing the possibility of BJP making a dent in Dalit votes and saying that BSP candidate Phool Babu may suffer a loss.
Due to the internal conflict in SP and the change of candidate at the last moment, the road to victory for BJP in Shahjahanpur Lok Sabha seat seems easy. BJP candidate Arun Sagar defeated BSP candidate Amarchand Johar by 2,68,318 votes in the year 2019. There are speculations about whether the victory margin will increase or decrease from the last time. Despite the alliance with Congress, the SP candidate has to rely on a big upset to win. At the same time, the possibility of BSP opening its account this time too is slim.
The result of the by-election of Dadraul assembly will be interesting. SP candidate Awadhesh Verma has given a tough fight to Arvind Singh of BJP. Along with winning the seat, BJP candidate Arun Sagar has claimed to form the government with a huge majority. SP candidate Jyotsna Gond said that the people themselves have fought their election. Whatever the exit polls show, SP will win with a big margin. On the other hand, BSP candidate Dr. Dodram Verma rejects the exit polls and believes that BSP’s victory is certain.