Are the conditions of the world going to change drastically in the coming times in terms of population? If the new study is to be believed then this is going to happen. A recent study published in The Lancet Journal has estimated that the number of children born to women in the world will continue to decline, which will drastically change the world’s population map. The consequences of this change can be very serious and even shocking.
There has been a decline in the fertility rate all over the world since 1950. Since then it has come down from 4.84 to 2.23 in 2021. The study, based on the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, projects the fertility rate to fall further to 1.59 by 2100.
There are many reasons for this decline in fertility rates, including increasing education and employment opportunities among women, access to contraceptive measures, changing attitudes towards family size, rising costs of raising children, etc. To maintain the population level, the countries of the world will have to keep the fertility rate up to 2.1 children per woman, which is called replacement level.
The decline in fertility rate has been described as very worrying in the report. (Symbolic photo: Pixabay)
Once the fertility rate falls below this level, the population size begins to shrink. By the year 2100, the fertility rate of almost all the countries will fall below this level due to which the world population will start decreasing. At present 46 percent of the countries are below this replacement level and one problem is that this decline is not uniform.
Absent a uniform decline, the world’s demographic divide will also change, with high-income countries having lower fertility rates and having to grapple with the challenges of population aging and workforce shortages. Whereas in low-income countries, more children will be born, but resources will be less.
Researchers say that this will further increase the gap between rich and poor countries. Having fewer people will reduce resource use and carbon emissions. But these will increase per person and there will be no benefit. Expansion and technological innovation may reduce its economic effects, but the real danger is that governments may increase pressure on women to have more children.
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FIRST PUBLISHED: March 22, 2024, 20:46 IST
