Israel-Iran Conflict: After the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran’s capital Tehran, tension has increased in the Middle East. On one hand, Iran has vowed to take strong action, while Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that he is ready for anything, if an attack is made, a strong response will be given. Due to this tension, many countries have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon.
If a war breaks out between Iran and Israel, it is sure to have an impact on the entire world. The whole world seems to be divided into two camps regarding this. The geopolitical landscape is likely to become even more unstable in the coming years. Factions within Hamas may unite to take a more aggressive stance against Israel, potentially increasing tensions on the Gaza-Israel border and leading to an increase in violence.
Abraham Accord will play an important role
In addition, the reactions of neighbouring Arab states, especially those that have previously normalised relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, will be crucial. Countries such as the UAE and Bahrain could find themselves in a diplomatic quagmire, where they face pressure from their populations to stand in solidarity with the Palestinian cause and balance their strategic ties with Israel. The survival of existing diplomatic agreements depends on how governments respond to the killing and the resulting retaliation from Hamas and allied groups.
What other challenges might there be?
In addition, countries such as Turkey, which have historically supported Hamas and Islamist movements in the region, could increase their diplomatic efforts and aid. This could strengthen a new group of states that could challenge Israel and its Western allies, potentially causing a rift between Western powers and countries aligned with Iran and could also challenge existing borders established after World War I.
The United States, as Israel’s primary ally, will face increasing pressure to balance its support for Israeli military actions with the needs to stabilize the region and address Palestinian grievances. Given the likely response from Arab countries and global public opinion in favor of Palestinian rights, the United States may find itself increasingly constrained in its ability to take action.
In addition, China and Russia may see this situation as an opportunity to expand their influence in the Middle East. Both countries have often supported Iran and opposed US policies in the region. Their diplomatic efforts towards Middle Eastern countries may get a boost as nations look for alternative partnerships in the wake of perceived Western failures to promote peace.
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