Booth made at the literary conference in Kadamkuan, Patna. The desolation at 8.15 am is not encouraging.
– Photo: Amar Ujala
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Detailed
For the first time in Patna on Wednesday, direct voters will vote to elect their mayor and deputy mayor. Both these posts were held by women only and will remain with them even after the declaration of results on 30th December. But, this election is different. The biggest thing is that the four BJP MLAs and both the BJP MPs of Patna could not open up. Patna seat of mayor and deputy mayor is equal to the area of four BJP MLAs. In terms of parliamentary seats, a large part of the Patna Sahib region along with a good part of the Patliputra seat will directly vote for the mayor and deputy mayor. Means, according to the power, the mayor or deputy mayor of Patna will sit on the chair for the first time with the power of four MLAs directly by the votes of the people. Who will be the mayor of Patna and who will sit on the chair of the deputy mayor, this is not even known to the councilors and MLAs. The real fight is on the mayor’s seat. The apathy regarding the deputy mayor’s seat was there even at the time of nomination and there was not much enthusiasm till the end of the campaign. In such a situation, ‘Amar Ujala’ took the help of three experts associated with Chanakya School of Political Rights and Research to understand the maths of this interesting contest, and it came to light that only the percentage of success in three types of management will tell the result.
polling booth management
Know which three candidates have more power
Including the four assembly constituencies of Patna, the Chief Councilor of Patna Municipal Corporation has to get votes from a total of 75 wards. This is the biggest task in this election. There are about 1900 voting booths for voting. Even if there is very little expenditure on delivering slips to the voters of a booth and performing the duty for the candidate at the booth, the amount will be up to Rs.10,000. According to this, there is an expenditure of about two crores. No matter how much it is deducted, there is no doubt in one crore rupees. Whereas, the total expenditure of Rs 30 lakh is allowed only. There are two ways to reduce this cost. One is that the candidate contesting for the post of mayor should enter into an agreement with the deputy mayor candidate and spend the amount by dividing it. A financially sound mayoral candidate has also adopted this formula and has also exchanged help with a candidate for deputy mayor. Another way is to take the help of councillors. This help is basically possible only for two candidates – one has strong chair experience and the other has best ward certificate. Both are strong on the economic front and also skilled in getting things done, hence these two are more effective in polling booth management. The remaining three candidates are financially prosperous, but they are unlikely to get the advantage of not having the same experience of booth management. Apart from this, there is also a candidate whose husband has experience and money as well as a strong chair running Patna. It is possible with them, but it is not easy for them. Not easy because a lot of time has passed since he got down from the chair and the atmosphere and equation have also changed.
caste management
Due to the division of castes, even the strongest caste becomes weak.
In this election of Mayor, 31 candidates are Hindu, while two are Muslim. Since the election is not partisan, religion and caste matter a lot. Most of the voters of this religion are in favor of one of the two Muslim candidates. In Muslim-majority areas, it has been decided between Monday and Tuesday that the vote has to be given to only one. Efforts are being made to eliminate the possibility of sporadic transmission to others. On the other hand, the math of 31 Hindu candidates is very unique. Like Lok Sabha, Vidhansabha, this seat is dominated by Kayasthas in Mayor and Deputy Mayor elections also. There are Kayastha MLAs on both the seats of Patna Urban. It is believed that they constitute 32-35 percent of the voters. A candidate from this caste has done caste mobilization properly. After this, about 15 percent of the voters are from the Vaish community. This society is outright standing with the strongest candidate of its caste. There is no possibility of this vote being dispersed. Whereas, there are many candidates and the candidate associated with power has also placed a bet. After this, Chandravanshi and Kushwaha matter in large caste voter groups. Their vote is around 10-10 percent. More than half a dozen Chandravanshi councilors are outgoing and the candidate holding monopoly over Vaishya Samaj has made the last attempt to woo the voters of this caste by supporting a Chandravanshi candidate on the deputy mayor. The Kushwaha community is still in uproar, but it is also close to Vaishya and not far from the Muslim candidate. Meaning, if votes are divided between more than two candidates on caste basis among Hindus, then the old expert player with 12-13 percent Muslim voters can get a chance to take advantage. It is possible that this adept player may get the support of a Yadav candidate fighting on the mayor’s seat at the last minute under the M-Y equation. This is the reason why a day or two before the polling, a strong candidate made different types of messages viral by ending caste-based divisions and campaigning for polarization on religious grounds. However, on the other hand, the candidate of the most dominant caste also made a poignant appeal to bring this powerful seat in the hands of his caste. The votes of forward castes including Rajput, Bhumihar, Brahmin are believed to be divided in three to four places, because many active faces from these castes are also in the fray.
political management
Whose relatives are BJP MLAs and MPs, this will tell the result
All the four MLAs and both the MPs in Patna are BJP. Their politics will depend to a great extent on the result of the mayoral election, that’s why all are taking steps in haste. Both the Kayastha MLAs of Patna, Nitin Naveen and Arun Kumar Sinha and Patna Sahib MP Ravi Shankar Prasad have not given assurance to their caste candidate. Patna City MLA Nand Kishore Yadav is working hard for the fully resident candidate of his area. Digha MLA Sanjeev Chaurasia has not opened the cards, but he is also with his old partner. The remaining BJP MLA from Patliputra, Ramkripal Yadav, can give internal support not on the basis of caste but on the basis of organization. The biggest thing is that on political grounds, due to the fight between BJP and BJP, the four BJP MLAs and both the MPs are not directly saying that they will support anyone. Another thing is that nobody is really getting to know who is going to be mayor or deputy mayor. In such a situation, standing with someone honestly, no one is seeking further harm.
