CPM Congress Alliance: No one is a permanent relative or enemy in politics. This saying fits perfectly on the political situation in Tripura. The political equations in Tripura have changed with the pre-poll alliance between the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) and the Congress to prevent the BJP from winning. Meanwhile, Tipra Motha has brought a new twist in the political fray of Tripura by proposing a merger with BJP’s ally IPFT.
The CPM and the Congress will contest the assembly elections in Tripura together, as it seemed from the hustle and bustle of the past few days. CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury had said on January 11 itself that CPM is ready for alliance with Congress to stop BJP’s victory chariot. The alliance was announced after a meeting between Congress general secretary Ajay Kumar and CPM state secretary Jitendra Chowdhary in Agartala on January 13.
Beginning of new chapter in Tripura politics
A new chapter has begun in Tripura politics with the CPM and Congress alliance. It is also correct to say a new chapter because here CPM and Congress were staunch opponents till now. Assembly elections are being held in Tripura since 1967. In the political history of the last 6 decades, CPM and Congress in Tripura were like North and South Pole. Till 2018, there was always a fight between these two parties for the power of Tripura. Left and Congress have ruled Tripura for 53 years as bitter rivals of each other. Now BJP has made the situation such that both have to contest elections together.
What was the compulsion of the CPM-Congress alliance?
The biggest question arises as to what was the compulsion between the CPM and the Congress to forge an alliance despite being staunch opponents. Leaders of both the parties had given this statement many times in the last few months that BJP will have to be stopped from coming back to power in Tripura by any means. Given the way BJP dominated Tripura politics in 2018, it was not easy for both CPM and Congress to challenge BJP by contesting separate elections. Only after all the assessments, both the parties have decided to contest the elections together, so that BJP can be succeeded in getting out of power in Tripura by any means. In a way, it can also be called an alliance of compulsion. When there is a threat to one’s own existence in politics, then even the staunchest opponents are forced to stand shoulder to shoulder and the same has happened in Tripura.
CPM wants to return to power in Tripura
In the assembly elections held in 2018, the CPM, which was in power for 25 years, had to face the BJP. CPM won only 16 out of 60 seats. Due to the historic performance of BJP, the CPM, which had been ruling Tripura for two and a half decades, was snatched away in one stroke. In Tripura’s 6 decades of electoral politics, the Left parties have been in power for 35 years. For the first time in 1978, the CPM government was formed in Tripura. Between 1978 and 1988, the CPM was in power under the leadership of Nripen Chakraborty. After that, from 1993 to 1998, there was a CPM government under the leadership of Dasarath Debbarma. The era of Manik Sarkar started from 1998. Left parties ruled Tripura from March 1998 to March 2018 under the leadership of Manik Sarkar. These figures are enough to tell how important Tripura is to the CPM. After the defeat in Tripura in 2018, for the Left parties, now the government is left only in Kerala in the whole country. The Left Front was voted out of power in West Bengal in 2011 itself.
Congress is fighting for survival
There was a time when Congress used to speak in the politics of Tripura. Tripura has a system of Chief Minister’s post since 1963. The Congress was in power in Tripura from July 1963 to November 1971 (Chief Minister Sachindra Lal Singh), then from March 1972 to March 1977 (Chief Minister Sukhmoy Sen Gupta). Apart from this, from February 1988 to February 1992 (Chief Minister Sudhir Ranjan Majumdar) and again from February 1992 to March 1993 (Chief Minister Sameer Ranjan Burman) there was a Congress government in Tripura. In this way Congress has been in power here for more than 18 years. From 1993 to 2018, Congress was maintaining its presence in the politics of Tripura as the main opposition party. But the 2018 election proved to be a nightmare for the Congress. Congress reached zero in this election. Despite contesting elections on 59 seats, the party could not win any seat. Its vote bank also got reduced to 1.79%. In a way, the Congress has been wiped out. The Congress was well aware that it alone cannot reach the power of Tripura in the upcoming elections. The Congress was also apprehensive about the results of the last elections. An alliance with the CPM had become necessary for the survival of the Congress.
Cut off the BJP-IPFT alliance
The political journey of BJP in Tripura has not been easy. It had to wait a long time of 35 years to win a seat in the assembly. In 2018, she reached the pinnacle of power from zero. However, the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) had a major contribution in BJP’s victory. BJP contested the election in alliance with IPFT. The effect of alliance with IPFT was that despite getting just 1.37% votes more than CPM, BJP managed to win 36 seats and IPFT won 8 seats. CPM leader and former Chief Minister Manik Sarkar has been repeatedly reiterating that the BJP came to power in Tripura last time because of the alliance with IPFT and the 7.5% vote share that went in favor of IPFT. CPM has agreed to form an alliance with Congress to counter this strong side of BJP.
Tipra Motha explores new options with IPFT
The BJP-IPFT alliance will remain intact in the upcoming elections. Both the parties have already announced about this. Despite this, Tipra Motha chief Pradyot Deb Burma is trying to create a new alternative in Tripura politics. The same message is being received from his recent statements. CPM and Congress want Tipra Motha to come to their side, but it seems that something else is going on in the mind of Pradyot Deb Burma. His eyes are fixed on BJP’s ally IPFT. A few days back he had said that the merger of Tipra Motha with IPFT could become a reality. He says that the demands of both the parties are the same. Tipra Motha Jahan is busy in strengthening the political ground through the demand of Greater Tipraland. On the other hand, IPFT has become a major force in the politics of Tripura, demanding a separate state by the name of Tipraland. Pradyot Deb Burma has also written a letter to IPFT Executive President Prem Kumar Reang. In this, he has proposed the merger of both the parties in the interest of ‘Tiprasa’. Pradyot Deb Burma has said that the demands of both the parties are more or less similar and if both of them meet, the voice of the native tribals of Tripura will be raised. Till now there is no response from IPFT on this. It is clear from this exercise of Pradyot Deb Burma that he is trying to create a new alternative to the main parties BJP, CPM and Congress in Tripura.
Without Tipra Motha there will be no benefit!
The question arises that CPM will be able to stop BJP’s victory chariot only by joining hands with Congress. The CPM is well aware that bringing the Congress along is not enough to defeat the BJP-IPFT alliance. CPM is also eyeing the regional party Tipra Motha. This is the reason why CPM General Secretary Sitaram Yechury has also said that his party is ready for an agreement with the Congress as well as with Tipra Motha. Tipra Motha, led by Pradyot Deb Burma, a scion of the former royal family, has emerged as a major regional political force in Tripura. Tipra Motha is demanding a separate state by the name of Greater Tipraland. To bring Tipra Motha into his fold, CPM state secretary Jitendra Chowdhary has gone so far as to say that the demand for Greater Tipraland is in accordance with the constitutional framework. Tipra Motha’s hold has become very strong within the last three years among the tribals of Tripura. From the point of view of reducing the mass base of IPFT, both CPM-Congress would like Tipra Motha to come in their court.
What will be the formula for seat sharing?
The CPM and the Congress have agreed to contest the elections together, but no decision has been taken yet on the distribution of seats. It is certain that CPM will contest more seats. Now it will be interesting to see whether the Congress gets seats according to its old status, or the CPM leaves only a few seats for the Congress on the basis of its 2018 performance. On questioning the formula of seat sharing, CPM and Congress leaders are currently giving evasive answers. Both the parties say that seat sharing is not an issue, but the real issue is to prevent BJP from winning. Congress general secretary Ajay Kumar has said that a Congress team will hold talks with the state secretary of the CPM to finalize the seat tally and only then a decision will be taken.
Told CPM-Congress alliance ‘unholy’
The alliance of CPM and Congress has increased the concern of the ruling BJP. The statement of BJP leader and Tripura Chief Minister Manik Saha seems to be the same. He has termed the alliance of CPM and Congress as an unholy alliance. However, Manik Saha has also said that the people of the state will give a befitting reply to the opportunistic CPM and Congress in the elections. The BJP says that both the CPM and the Congress faced an existential threat. This is the reason why both of them have joined hands despite being diametrically opposed. Former Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb went so far as to say that before 2018, the Left could rule Tripura continuously for 25 years because there was a tacit understanding between the CPM and the Congress.
BJP’s difficulties increased due to changed equation
Even though BJP, CPM and Congress are calling the alliance unholy, but the problems of BJP have increased due to the changed political equation in Tripura. BJP also realizes very well that now it will have to work harder to retain the power of Tripura. On the other hand, the new move of Tipra Motha can also make the way of BJP difficult. If BJP’s ally IPFT accepts Tipra Motha’s proposal, then it will not be so easy for BJP to manage Tripura’s political equation in the coming days. There can also be a possibility that Tipra Motha may become a part of the BJP-IPFT alliance, but for this Tipra Motha chief Pradyot Deb Barma would like some concrete assurance from the BJP on the demand for a separate state and it will not be easy for the BJP.
The term of the Tripura Legislative Assembly ends on March 22, 2023. There are a total of 60 assembly seats here. Elections are likely to be held in Tripura along with Meghalaya and Nagaland in February-March. The political battle of Tripura is becoming very interesting with the CPM-Congress alliance and Tipra Motha’s new bet.
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